Seven Children

Inequality and Britain's Next Generation

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FIGURES

Figure 1:

The seven children among all 100 children, page 14

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Source: HBAI (Households Below Average Income) Statistics, 2019/20, Department for Work and Pensions

Note: Area is proportional to disposable family daily income in Britain in the 2020s. The 6 per cent of children who are better off than the seventh child live in families that receive 34 per cent of all annual income, and are not included here. The families of our seven typical children are thus only sharing 66 per cent of the overall UK disposable household income pie (see the book’s Appendix).
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Figure 2:

The shares of the typical seven children, page 15

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Source: UNICEF Innocenti—Global Office of Research and Foresight (2023) ‘Innocenti Report Card 18: Child poverty in the midst of wealth’, UNICEF Innocenti, Florence, December, https://www.unicef.org/globalinsight/media/3291/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Report-Card-18-Child-Poverty-Amidst-Wealth-2023.pdf

Note: UNICEF report the relative percentage change shown here, not the percentage point change.

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Figure 3:

UK income inequality, 1961–2022, page 35

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Source: IFS (2024) ‘Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK’, Institute for Fiscal Studies, https://ifs.org.uk/living-standards-poverty-and-inequality-uk (accessed 11 January 2024).

Note: Among all households, calculated as the Gini coefficient.

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Figure 4:

Average height of 5-year-old boys, countries, 1985–2020, page 50

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Source: Redrawn by the author from data in Press Association (2023) ‘British children shorter than other five-year-olds in Europe’, ITV News, 21 June, data available at https://www.itv.com/news/2023–06–21/british-children-shorter-thanother-five-year-olds-in-europe

Note: A 5-year-old in 1990 would have been born in 1985 and their height influenced mostly by nutrition in the years 1985–1990.

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Figure 5:

Wage squeezes in the UK, 1900–2FI024, page 85

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Source: Redrawn by the author from updated data provided by the Trades Union Congress, originally used in Geoff Tily (2018) ‘17-year wage squeeze the worst in two hundred years: Never mind the Great Depression, we’re now experiencing the longest pay squeeze since Napoleon marched across Europe’, TUC, 11 May, https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/17-year-wage-squeeze-worst-two-hundred-years.

Note: The graphic shows how the current UK wage squeeze compares to the previous ones that occurred during the last century. This one has gone on for far longer.

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Figure 6:

Income shares of and within the top 10%, UK, 1910–2022, page 145

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Source: Danny Dorling (2019) Inequality and the 1%, 3rd edition, London: Verso. Data available here: https://www.dannydorling.org/books/onepercent/Material. html—with estimates for 2020, 2021 and 2022 added from the World Inequality Database, accessed 19 April 2024: https://wid.world/country/united-kingdom/

Note: The World Inequality Database estimates suggest a recent fall in income inequality. It will be some years before we can be sure if this occurred or not.

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Figure 7:

Voting at the UK general election, 2019, page 163

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Source: James Sloam and Matt Henn (2019) ‘Young cosmopolitans and the deepening of the intergenerational divide following the 2019 general election’, LSE Blogs, 13 December, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/young-cosmopolitans-and-ge2019/ and Gideon Skinner and Roger Mortimore (2019) ‘How Britain voted in the 2019 election’, Ipsos, 20 December, https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britainvoted- 2019-election Note: Voting by major political party and age, approximated to groups of 1 million people. The lightest grey and the darker grey coloured squares represent people who chose not to vote or who were not allowed to vote.

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UPDATED Figure 7:

Voting at the UK general election, 2019, page 163

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  • Notes for Updated Figure 7

    Open or Close
    The age groups no longer contain almost exactly the same numbers of people. People in the UK have had fewer babies in the past five years and so the age group 0–6 now has only around 5.5 million members, not 6 million. However, a little net positive immigration and some ageing means that the older age groups all tend to now contain 6.5 million people rather than 6 million. This is not the case for the age group 23–28, a great many of whom left during the pandemic and, because of Brexit, and never came back. Similarly, the age group 65–73 has not grown in size because of few births after the post-World War Two baby boom (they were born later, in the 1950s). Overall, though, there has been less emigration of families with children – emigration became harder after Brexit. The UK adult population has grown by two million, and most of that is of people aged over 29. This is because of ageing combined with less emigration. But what is most interesting in the update of Figure 7 is not our changing demographics, but how our voting patterns have changed .The greatest change is that three million fewer people chose to vote in 2024 as compared to 2019. There was a huge growth in apathy. In every single age group, apart from people aged 65+, more adults chose not to vote than to vote for any political party. At age 65+ a majority still chose to vote for the Conservatives, but that was a depleted majority. The Conservatives lost to apathy, and to a new alternative being offered to them – the far-far right ‘Reform UK’. The Labour vote actually fell between 2019 and 2024. It fell most amongst the young. What made the 2024 election abnormal was the rebranded Brexit Party standing as ‘Reform UK’ in almost every seat in the mainland of the UK. This party took almost 4 million votes, mainly from the Tories, who lost another 3 million to people no longer voting (net). The result was to hand Labour a 411-seat majority – despite Labour wining fewer votes than it had in 2019! The Liberal Democrat vote was also slightly lower in 2024. To the nearest million, the LibDems won as many votes in 2024 as they had in 2019; but now were rewarded with 72 seats rather than just 11. That is how the UK voting system works. It would be wrong to label the UK a ‘democracy’, as there is such weak relationship between votes and seats.
     
    Sources: IPSOS estimates of voters turnout and voting by age: Gideon Skinner, Keiran Pedley, Cameron Garrett, Ben Roff Public Affairs (2024) How Britain voted in the 2024 election, London:
    Ipsos, https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-election Note that this is based on a survey of ‘17,394 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 15,206 said they voted, interviewed on the online random probability Ipsos Knowledge Panel between 5-8 July 2024. The data was weighted using our normal methodology to be representative of the adult population profile of Great Britain, and then the proportions of voters for each party and non-voters were weighted to the actual results by region.’ IPPR research helped confirm the Ipsos findings: Parth Patel and Viktor Valgarðsson (2024) Half of us: Turnout patterns at the 2024 general election, London: IPPR, July, https://ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Downloads/Half_of_us_July24_2024-07-12-105904_eioz.pdf
     
    Table: proportion of people in each of 6 age groups by UK vote in 2024
     






































































    %

    18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
    Not voting635952453627
    Labour151920202017
    Conservative248121732
    Liberal Dem.656889
    Reform UK35791210
    Green Party753331
    SNP/Plaid212123
    Other222221
    Total 100100100100100100

     
    Source: Ipsos survey held 5-8 July 2024 and weighted to fit regional totals.
     
    The figures in the table above were used alongside the overall party vote totals and population estimates to revise
    Seven Children’s original Figure 7, based on 2019, into its 2024 form. The ONS estimate population of the UK in mid-year 2024 was 69.025 million – so three million more than what we thought the population was in 2019. Of those, 28.809 million people voted.
     
    See: Richard Cracknell and Carl Baker (2024) General election 2024 results , Research Briefing, London: House of Commons Library, 18 July,
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf
     
    Those voting in the 2024 general election were just 59.8% of the 48 million people registered to vote. So, to the nearest million, 40 million people did not vote or were not registered to vote. Of that 40 million, 14 million were children, leaving 26 million adults who did not vote. Of those adults who did not vote, 20 million chose not to vote, and another 6 million were not registered to vote or were not permitted to register to vote. It is not easy to determine who exactly qualifies to vote in the UK because of complex rules about residency.
     
    The number was 7 million of people able to but not registered to vote in England and Wales in April 2024, roughly a million extra appeared to have registered before the election took place in July. See: Craig Westwood (2024) Millions of missing voters urged to register before deadline, London: The Electoral Commission, 9 April,
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/millions-missing-voters-urged-register-deadline
     
    The final table here shown below is of the population change in the UK by age, for those readers who are interested in what has happened and where we are heading in terms of how many of us there are, and who will be voting at the next General Election.
     
    The first column in Table 2 shows how each population group has changed in size compared to five years earlier. Thus, there are 1% fewer children aged 5–9 in the UK in 2024 than the numbers aged 0–4 in 2019. Deaths and net migration are the only possible reasons. The age group that has grown the most are those aged 20–24 in 2024, by 16%; that has to be due to net in-migration. If you follow down the first column of figures in Table 2, you will note that the first fall is for ages 55–59. This is when deaths begin to take their toll. Follow the column down to its end and you will see that 88% of those aged 95–99 in 2019 did not make it to be 100+ in 2024.
     
    The second column in Table 2 is the absolute number of people, in thousands, that the percentages in the first column refer to. The third and fourth columns are the ONS estimates and projections for the population of the UK by age in 2019 and 2024. Note that the total population estimate for 2019 is now thought to have been 66.8 million (nearer to 67). The fifth and sixth columns are the change when we just compare the age groups directly. There were 366,000 fewer children aged 0–4 in the UK in 2024 than in 2019, a 9% fall. This is greater than the 8% fall in the numbers aged 5–9 in 2024. Our primary schools are going to struggle to fill places in future, and then our secondary schools. We will be an even older population at the time of the next General Election, despite the continued immigration that the UK benefits from. The final row in Table 2 shows that we grew in total population size by 3% in these five years. Without immigration we would already be a shrinking island. And, already, the 25–29 age group are fewer in number than those who were of those ages in 2019. Our future will depend as much on who comes and who goes, as on how we vote, and whether we ever manage to make voting fair.
     
    Table: Population estimates and projections by the Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom (UK), PERSONS, thousands, 2019, 2024, and change by age group
     



































































































































































     

    cohort basis

    populations
    period basis
    ages

    change %

    absolute20192024change %absolute
      0-4

     

     

    3,854

    3,519-9%-336
      5-9-1%-244,1533,831-8%-322
     10-14-1%-593,9564,0943%137
     15-193%1133,6534,06911%416
     20-2416%5864,1554,2382%83
     25-298%3444,5254,499-1%-27
     30-347%3184,5054,8438%338
     35-396%2814,4024,7869%384
     40-443%1194,0214,52012%499
     45-492%754,4054,097-7%-309
     50-541%304,6624,435-5%-226
     55-59-1%-324,4084,6305%222
     60-64-3%-1113,7584,29714%538
     65-69-5%-1823,3713,5776%205
     70-74-8%-2723,3203,100-7%-220
     75-79-13%-4212,3272,89925%572
     80-84-21%-4841,7161,8427%126
     85-89-35%-5941,0411,1228%81
     90-94-53%-5544594876%28
     95-99-73%-333128126-2%-2
     100 & over-88%-112131621%3








    all ages

    3%2,19266,83369,0253%2,192

     
    Source: ONS Principal projections 2024, and 2018-based projections for 2019.

Figure 8:

Change in child poverty, countries, 2012–14 to 2019–21, page 172

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Source: UNICEF Innocenti—Global Office of Research and Foresight (2023) ‘Innocenti Report Card 18: Child poverty in the midst of wealth’, UNICEF Innocenti, Florence, December, https://www.unicef.org/globalinsight/media/3291/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Report-Card-18-Child-Poverty-Amidst-Wealth-2023.pdf

Note: UNICEF report the relative percentage change shown here, not the percentage point change.

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Figure 9:

Well-being in the UK, 2011–21, page 198

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Source: David Finch and Adam Tinson (2022) ‘The continuing impact of COVID-19 on health and inequalities: A year on from our COVID-19 impact inquiry’, The Health Foundation, 24 August, https://www.health.org.uk/publications/longreads/the-continuing-impact-of-covid-19-on-health-and-inequalities

Note: These estimates are the official measures of mental well-being of the people of the UK, as reported by the ONS for each quarter of the years 2011–21.

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Figure 10:

Children dying in England, 2020–23, page 209

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Source: NCMD (2023) ‘Child death review data release: Year ending 31 March 2023’, National Child Mortality Database, release of 9 November, https://www.ncmd.info/publications/child-death-data-2023/

Note: These figures are the mortality rates of children in England by age and neighbourhood deprivation, 2020–23.

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Figure 11:

Income inequality, countries, 2005–20, page 216

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Source: OECD ‘Income inequality’, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm

Note: These are the latest OECD measures of income inequality in fourteen European countries (May 2024).

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