{"id":9726,"date":"2023-05-27T21:37:53","date_gmt":"2023-05-27T21:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/?p=9726"},"modified":"2023-05-27T21:37:53","modified_gmt":"2023-05-27T21:37:53","slug":"slowdown-means-the-end-of-pervasive-capitalism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/?p=9726","title":{"rendered":"Slowdown means the end of pervasive capitalism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Danny Dorling discusses the end of the age of speed in his book Slowdown.<!--more--> While examining the phenomenon of \u201cslower progress\u201d in the face of the ever-increasing population, workforce and capital in the world under the spell of progress, the book draws attention to sustainable solution steps that can be taken in line with future expectations.<\/p>\n<p>First published 27 May 2023<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_9722\" style=\"width: 464px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9722\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9722\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/wp-content\/files\/Picture1-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"454\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/wp-content\/files\/Picture1-10.png 454w, https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/wp-content\/files\/Picture1-10-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 454px) 100vw, 454px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9722\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The cover of &#8220;Slowdown&#8221;, Turkish Edition<\/p><\/div>\n<p><em>Questions by Gunay DEMIRBAG<\/em><br \/>\nThe fact that what we see of as the rapidly growing world appears to be on the edge of burnout has brought the concepts of slowdown and sustainability, which have been talked about for a long time, higher up the agenda. We asked British writer Danny Dorling our questions about the global &#8216;Slowdown&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>What do you mean by slowing down and when was the first thought in the world to slow down?<\/strong><br \/>\nSlowing down (a word first used in the 1890s to mean going slower) affects many things today. It was first seen globally in the context of human population growth, which began to slow around 1968 and has since slowed. The increase in the number of people corresponds to a smaller percentage each year compared to the previous year. Soon there will be a smaller absolute numbers being added. According to UN projections, when we reach 2086, our numbers will start to decrease every year, which will be a first in human history. At least as far as we know.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Slowing down affects all areas. In addition to our population, our global economic growth and innovation speed are declining. The slowdown now affects much more than the population growth rate. It affects almost every area of our lives. Our current slowdown represents a major challenge to the expectation of acceleration and a step into the unknown.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>To what extent are our current belief systems (economic, political, and others) built on assumptions of future rapid technological change and sustained economic growth? <\/strong>It&#8217;s hard to accept the slowdown that awaits us. Areas that haven&#8217;t slowed down yet are: carbon pollution, temperature rises, and the number of global students studying at university. But these will also start to slow down soon, some sooner than others.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Acknowledging the slowdown that awaits us will require us to change our fundamental view of change, innovation and discovery, which we see as purely beneficial. Can we accept that we have to stop waiting for endless technological revolutions? The possibility that we might not be able to do this reasonably is in itself frightening.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Assuming slowdown is unlikely and new big changes are just around the corner, what mistakes will we make? What if everything stays as it is now while the pace of change slows down?Will the slowing world be a better place?<\/strong><br \/>\nYes, probably. Emotionally, life may become closer to that of our hunter-gatherer ancestors than to the lives of our 20th-century ancestors. We do not know what will happen, but in order to achieve a better future, we must first imagine it. The slowdown means the end of pervasive capitalism. Capitalism could never last forever, as it was based on the expectation of ever-expanding markets and insatiable demand, creating such a peculiar concentration of wealth that it made democracy look ridiculous.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s hard for a shrinking and ageing population to make money.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It will be very difficult to sustain large economic inequalities during and after the slowdown. The less things change, the more difficult it will be to make money from a shrinking and aging population, a population that is more intuitive and not easily tempted by the &#8216;new&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Most advertisements aim to convince us that we want things we don&#8217;t need; we should buy it, or at least covet it, and despair if we can&#8217;t even imagine owning it. However, as more and more people are studying psychology and social sciences, as well as having more advanced numeracy skills, it will become more difficult to fool the majority.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a slower future, sleight of hand and psychological tricks won&#8217;t work because they won&#8217;t be new anymore, especially if the &#8220;new&#8221; is becoming less and less new due to the slowdown in technological innovation. The slowdown means that our institutions (universities, schools, hospitals) and homes (kitchens and bathrooms) will not change as much as they used to, but this will be unlike our attitudes which could change more quickly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Slowing down means more time to question that our grandparents never had time to question because they were dealing with so many new things.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Slowdown requires products that last longer mean less waste. It means that many of the things that we now see as major social and environmental problems will not be a problem in the future.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Of course, we will have new problems, many of which we cannot even imagine right now. And of course always; We will continue to do what we did before, during, and after the speed age &#8211; to have fun and have fun with our friends and family.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>What are the links to slowing down and sustainability? How do these two entities support each other?<\/strong><br \/>\nOf course, people will also move in the future, they will change places. In a calmer and more rational world, they should have a lot more time to do it. But they will no longer have to relocate to where their business is or go far from a place that has become unproductive.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">As is often written, we won&#8217;t have to spend so much time producing so many things of almost no real value. We will have more time to ourselves, but we will need to use this time sustainably \u2013 so there will be an ecotourism boom.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tourism in the future will mostly take the form of ecotourism, just as paints in most countries are now mostly lead-free paint. One way to think of the current global economy is to see it as something rooted in the events of 1492. Since then, we have been globalising, and more and more people have been drawn into it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In some ways, our economy and resources are similar to what happened to the land when you first farmed. The soil is quickly depleted and you cannot grow a crop. You get diminishing returns. Capitalism seems to have been such a learning process, rather than the final state. What&#8217;s next? We don&#8217;t know; we cannot say. But whatever it is, it will have to be sustainable. This is not a plea, just an observation.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Should deceleration be a state policy, and when should the decision to switch to deceleration be made?<\/strong><br \/>\nYes, some policy makers are better at doing this than others. In December 2019, the wealthy world&#8217;s most unequal countries were mostly ruled by far-right men: Donald Trump in the US, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era in Chile and Boris Johnson in the UK.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Simultaneously, however, women have been gaining power in more and more equal countries: Finland&#8217;s prime minister, Sanna Marin, of the Social Democratic Party, who took office a few years ago, was the most notable example. Marin subsequently led the country in coalition with Li Anderson (Left Alliance), Katri Kulmuni (Center Party), Maria Ohisalo (The Greens) and Anna-Maja Henriksson (Swedish People&#8217;s Party). Stop and think about how much has changed in such a short time, because when you look at it that way, one becomes more optimistic. Until recently, women were not even allowed to receive basic education.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Several male physicists and mathematicians developed the phase space diagrams used in the book shortly before the introduction of the first universal birth service in the 1870s to stop the most human aspect of slowing down, to aid the birth of fewer people. They did this at a time when a large part of human life was really accelerating. According to one 21st-century study of the rate of social change that chose fertility as the change to be measured, \u201cinterpreters often observe that the rate of social change is accelerating in the 20th century.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Another study begins: \u201cIf the stability in life that facilitates a degree of control and planning is seemingly undermined, thus giving rise to feelings of social acceleration, I investigate its nature and how it manifests in its location before questioning why.\u201d But we are not accelerating. If we feel that we are, it is time to change that feeling.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>In which areas can it be done and after how long will the results take to arrive?<\/strong><br \/>\nThe slowdown is already happening, and in some cases has been going on for quite some time. Over the past 160 years, our population has doubled, doubled again, and then nearly doubled again. We have never seen such an increase in human population over such a small number of generations. We will not see it again. Our population growth rate is slowing down today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Charles Darwin wrote in 1859 of &#8220;innumerable recorded cases of the astonishingly rapid growth of various animals under natural conditions, when conditions are favourable in two or three successive seasons.&#8221; Using examples ranging from tiny seedlings to gigantic elephants, he discussed situations in which exponential population growth rarely seen in nature has occurred. Indeed, the best example he could have chosen would have been his own species, humans, whose exponential growth has not been seen before and has just begun its worldwide proliferation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Since 1968, 109 years after Darwin wrote these sentences, we began to slow down, and the results are already happening.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>What do you think about the role of artificial intelligence in this equation?<\/strong><br \/>\nToday we are told that artificial intelligence is our future, and there are widespread claims that computers could quickly think like us if they were fast enough, programmed well enough, or programmed themselves well enough. As we do, the way we do, and ultimately better than us. I clearly remember being told this when I first programmed a computer as a kid in the 1970s. Since then, the pace of progress in AI has been rather slow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my doctoral thesis in the 1980s, I mentioned it as slow as a mischievous sea slug, because at that time it was the only creature that was somehow simulated using a computer. No one has yet created a pet robot that realistically behaves like a real animal, let alone an artificial human. The rate of technological progress before the 1970s was remarkably rapid. But the later rate is surprisingly slow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Artificial intelligence is still pretty artificial and not that smart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The machine cannot know the moral truth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s not because we&#8217;re great thinkers that people are so hard to imitate. Since we are not machines, it is very difficult to create an artificial mind. We think in very strange ways. Not necessarily good, fast, or clever ways, just weird ways\u2026 So a computer can be programmed to recognise license plates, then text, then words. Given enough source text that has been carefully translated by experts working specifically for European Union countries (so Google Translate works best for European languages), it can learn to translate between languages through \u201cmachine learning\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But a computer cannot be built with a deep understanding of why it is wrong to let other people starve or to care about the long-term consequences of their actions. A computer can&#8217;t worry about climate change like a 15-year-old Swedish girl.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Think about moral judgements. William Armstrong&#8217;s tombstone in the churchyard in Rothbury has the inscription: \u201cHis scientific achievements have earned him worldwide fame and his great philanthropy the gratitude of the poor.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is no mention that he actually made his money through the manufacture and sale of weapons. And artificial intelligence today is far from imitating human interest in such vices, as it was when it was first invented. This morning I asked Alexa, the robot in my kitchen: \u201cWhy is it bad for people to starve?\u201d \u201cHmm, I don&#8217;t know about that,\u201d she replied. Google it and you might find an economist saying whether it makes economic sense to let people go hungry (and unfortunately someone probably made those calculations). ChatGPT only mimics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The machine cannot intuitively know if something is morally wrong. You have to be human to know, treating other people as less human requires indifference \u2013 which some people can do wonderfully. It would be pretty hard to get a response other than explaining all this to an AI engine and parroting your own words to you. All ChatGPT gives you is the vulgarest of politically balanced answers, combining canned answers available on the internet. Imagination? No, it doesn&#8217;t have it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>What will happen in the future?<\/strong><br \/>\nTry to imagine what your grandchildren might be worried about in 2222, when the global human population has been declining for decades, economic equality is high, and the planet is no longer warming or even cooling with current interglacial warming having ended. At some point before that year, sea levels will become more stable than they are today, although much higher than they are now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Power supplies will be safe and largely non-polluting. While artificial intelligence can benefit, it will still be very artificial and not very intelligent. In this future, we will all be pretty well fed, but very few of us will be fat. So what should we worry about then? Whatever this is, it&#8217;s definitely going to be a major concern. To be human is to worry with the imagination; To always seek a utopia is to fear disaster.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8216;Number growth&#8217; will stop soon: The belief that we are being thrown rapidly into an unknown future is decreasing day by day; but we are just emerging from the dense fog of our bumpy past, and now we are beginning to see the clouds parting as our journey slows. There are beautiful seasons to see, but these are not fertile seasons in which our numbers, inventions, and total wealth increase exponentially. Because the increase in our numbers will stop very soon. The last few generations have seen a trajectory and many painful events involving the worst of all wars in terms of deaths and holocausts, and the most despicable of all human behaviour, including the planning and construction necessary for the mass nuclear annihilation of our species.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><b>It is emphasised that after such an event that we have experienced globally since the beginning of the pandemic, nothing will be the same as before. Now that the pandemic is over, what do you think are the most important changes in the world since 2020?<\/b><br \/>\nThe pandemic has made the slowdown that awaits us more obvious.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We still don&#8217;t travel by plane as much as we used to. Only a very small minority of us have flown on this planet \u2013 most people have never been on a plane, and nearly all of the children born this year will never fly. Most children in the world have never been and will never get on a plane. But the pandemic was the beginning of a slowdown in flight \u2013 this slowdown is still on the rise, but not as fast as in 2018 and 2019. The pandemic has made the slowdown that awaits us more obvious, and it&#8217;s something to be thankful for.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The alternative\u2014an ever-increasing total human population, more economically divided societies than ever before, per capita consumption more than ever\u2014could be a disaster. Without both population growth and economic growth, capitalism\u2014the economic system we&#8217;ve become so used to as we can&#8217;t imagine the end of it\u2014turns into something else.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">To something much more stable and logical. It is impossible to know whether people will be happier in that future world. They may more often come face-to-face with the fact that we cannot find happiness by acquiring more possessions and having more exotic experiences. There&#8217;s a lot we don&#8217;t know. But at least we have to acknowledge that the slowdown is upon us and can now happen in many surprising areas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Less destruction less poverty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It may take some time for us to accept that we are now faced with fewer discoveries, fewer new mysteries, and fewer &#8220;big men&#8221;. But is this a very difficult bite to swallow? And we will see less despotism, less destruction and less poverty. For example, we will never again blindly believe in the &#8220;creative destruction&#8221; that twentieth-century economists foolishly praised at the height of the great acceleration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It was the weird idea that things got better as companies went bankrupt, because only those firms that deserved to go bankrupt went bankrupt. This nihilistic rhetoric made sense according to the bizarre (but popular at the time) survival of the fittest theory of corporate evolution. The pandemic has only helped to increase the speed of slowdown. At the most basic level, fewer babies were born than predicted, both during and after the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><em>Next: In Turkish, from which the text above was translate by AI and only minimally corrected!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Danny Dorling: \u201cYava\u015flama, yayg\u0131n kapitalizmin sonu demektir\u201d<br \/>\nDanny Dorling, Yava\u015flamak adl\u0131 kitab\u0131nda h\u0131z \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonunu ele al\u0131yor. \u0130lerlemenin b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fc alt\u0131nda kalan d\u00fcnyada gitgide artan n\u00fcfus, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermayesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u201cdaha yava\u015f ilerleme\u201d olgusunu farkl\u0131 disiplinler i\u00e7erisinde irdelerken gelecekten beklentiler do\u011frultusunda at\u0131labilecek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<br \/>\nD\u00fcnya Gazetesi<br \/>\nYAYINLAMA27 May\u0131s 2023<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">G\u00fcnay DEM\u0130RBA\u011e<br \/>\nH\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n t\u00fckenmi\u015flik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle uzun s\u00fcredir konu\u015fulan yava\u015flama ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik kavramlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. K\u00fcresel \u00e7apta ya\u015fanan \u2018Yava\u015flama\u2019 konusunda sorular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u0130ngiliz yazar Danny Dorling\u2019e y\u00f6nelttik.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yava\u015flamak derken neyi kastediyorsunuz ve d\u00fcnyada ilk kez ne zaman yava\u015flamak gerekti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<br \/>\nBug\u00fcn yava\u015flama (ilk olarak 1890&#8217;larda kullan\u0131lan, daha yava\u015f ilerlemek anlam\u0131nda gelen bir kelime) bir\u00e7ok \u015feyi etkiliyor. K\u00fcresel olarak ilk kez 1968 civar\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flayan ve o zamandan beri yava\u015flayan insan n\u00fcfusu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130nsan say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f her y\u0131l bir \u00f6ncekine k\u0131yasla daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir y\u00fczdeye denk geliyor. Yak\u0131nda daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir mutlak say\u0131 olacak. BM projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2086\u2019ya geldi\u011fimizde say\u0131m\u0131z her y\u0131l d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak ki bu da insanl\u0131k tarihinde bir ilk olacak. En az\u0131ndan bildi\u011fimiz kadar\u0131yla.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yava\u015flama her alan\u0131 etkiliyor<br \/>\nN\u00fcfusumuzun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmemiz ve inovasyon h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Yava\u015flama art\u0131k n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. Hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n neredeyse her alan\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. Mevcut yava\u015flamam\u0131z, h\u0131zlanma beklentisine y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fck bir meydan okumay\u0131 ve bilinmeyene do\u011fru bir ad\u0131m\u0131 temsil ediyor.<br \/>\nHali haz\u0131rdaki inan\u00e7 sistemlerimiz (ekonomik, politik ve di\u011ferleri) ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gelecekteki h\u0131zl\u0131 teknolojik de\u011fi\u015fim ve s\u00fcrekli ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmi\u015ftir? Bizi bekleyen yava\u015flamay\u0131 kabul etmek zor. Hen\u00fcz yava\u015flamayan alanlar \u015funlar: karbon kirlili\u011fi, s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u00fcniversitede okuyan k\u00fcresel \u00f6\u011frenci say\u0131s\u0131. Ancak bunlar da yak\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flayacak, baz\u0131lar\u0131 di\u011ferlerinden daha erken yava\u015flayacak.<br \/>\nBizi bekleyen yava\u015flamay\u0131 kabul etmek salt fayda olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz de\u011fi\u015fime, inovasyona ve ke\u015ffe ili\u015fkin temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmemizi gerektirecek. Bitmek bilmeyen teknolojik devrimler beklemeyi b\u0131rakmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini kabul edebilecek miyiz? Bunu makul bir \u015fekilde yapamama ihtimalimiz ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na korkutucu. Yava\u015flaman\u0131n olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yeni b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimlerin hemen k\u00f6\u015fede oldu\u011funu varsayarsak hangi hatalar\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131z? De\u011fi\u015fim h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flarken her \u015fey \u015fu anda oldu\u011fu gibi kal\u0131rsa ne olacak?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yava\u015flayan d\u00fcnya daha iyi bir yer mi olacak?<br \/>\nEvet, muhtemelen. Duygusal a\u00e7\u0131dan hayat, 20. y\u00fczy\u0131ldaki atalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hayatlar\u0131ndansa avc\u0131 toplay\u0131c\u0131 atalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131nkine daha yak\u0131n hale gelebilir. Ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz ama daha iyi bir gelece\u011fe ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce onu hayal etmeliyiz. Yava\u015flama, yayg\u0131n kapitalizmin sonu demektir. Kapitalizm, s\u00fcrekli geni\u015fleyen pazarlar ve doyumsuz talep beklentisine dayal\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve servet kavram\u0131na demokrasiyi g\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00e7 duruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek denli tuhaf bir yo\u011funla\u015fma yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in asla sonsuza kadar s\u00fcremezdi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen ve ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfusun para kazanmas\u0131 zor<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik e\u015fitsizlikleri yava\u015flama s\u0131ras\u0131nda ve sonras\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek epey zor olacak. Her \u015fey daha az de\u011fi\u015fir hale geldik\u00e7e, daha sezgili ve \u201cyeni\u201dnin cazibesine kolay kolay kanmayan, gitgide k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen ve ya\u015flanan bir n\u00fcfustan para kazanmak \u00e7ok daha zor hale gelecek.<br \/>\n\u00c7o\u011fu reklam, bizi ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olmayan \u015feyleri istedi\u011fimize ikna etmeyi ama\u00e7lar; onu sat\u0131n almal\u0131 ya da en az\u0131ndan ona g\u00f6z dikmeli ve ona sahip olmay\u0131 hayal bile edemiyorsak umutsuzlu\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fmeliyiz. Bununla birlikte, gitgide daha fazla insan psikoloji ve sosyal bilimler okudu\u011fu, ayr\u0131ca daha ileri aritmetik beceriye sahip oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kand\u0131rmak daha zor hale gelecektir.<br \/>\nDaha yava\u015f bir gelecekte, el \u00e7abuklu\u011fu ve psikolojik hileler i\u015fe yaramayacak, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k yeni olmayacaklar, bilhassa teknolojik inovasyondaki yava\u015flamadan dolay\u0131 \u201cyeni\u201d olan gitgide azal\u0131yorsa. Yava\u015flama, kurumlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n (\u00fcniversiteler, okullar, hastaneler) ve evlerimizin (mutfaklar ve banyolar) eskisi kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi, ancak tutumlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n aksine daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.<br \/>\nYava\u015flama, b\u00fcy\u00fckanne ve b\u00fcy\u00fckbabalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yeni olan pek \u00e7ok \u015feyle u\u011fra\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in asla sorgulamaya zaman bulamad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamak i\u00e7in daha fazla zaman demektir. Yava\u015flama; daha uzun s\u00fcre dayanan \u00fcr\u00fcnler, daha az at\u0131k demektir. \u015eu anda toplumsal ve \u00e7evresel a\u00e7\u0131dan b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlar olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz pek \u00e7ok \u015feyin gelecekte sorun te\u015fkil etmeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.<br \/>\nElbette yeni sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z olacak ki bunlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu \u015fu anda hayal bile edemiyoruz. Ve tabii ki her zaman; h\u0131z \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce, h\u0131z \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 boyunca ve sonras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015feyleri yapmaya devam edece\u011fiz -arkada\u015flar\u0131m\u0131zla, ailemizle keyifli vakitler ge\u00e7irip e\u011flenece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yava\u015flamak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 nelerdir? Bu iki olu\u015fum birbirlerini nas\u0131l destekliyor?<br \/>\n\u0130nsanlar elbette gelecekte de hareket edecek, yer de\u011fi\u015ftirecekler. Daha sakin ve daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada bunu yapmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha fazla vakitleri olmal\u0131. Ama art\u0131k i\u015flerinin oldu\u011fu yere ta\u015f\u0131nmak ya da verimsiz hale gelen bir yerden uza\u011fa gitmek zorunda kalmayacaklar.<br \/>\nS\u0131k s\u0131k yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, ger\u00e7ek de\u011feri neredeyse olmayan bu kadar \u00e7ok \u015fey \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in bu kadar zaman harcamak zorunda kalmayaca\u011f\u0131z. Kendimize ay\u0131racak daha \u00e7ok zaman\u0131m\u0131z olacak, ama bu zaman\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u015fekilde kullanmam\u0131z gerekecek -dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bir ekoturizm patlamas\u0131 ya\u015fanacak.<br \/>\nGelecekte turizm \u00e7o\u011funlukla ekoturizm \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek, t\u0131pk\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkede boyalar\u0131n art\u0131k \u00e7o\u011funlukla kur\u015funsuz boya olmas\u0131 gibi. Mevcut k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmenin yollar\u0131ndan biri, onu k\u00f6klerini 1492\u2019de ya\u015fananlardan alan bir \u015fey olarak g\u00f6rmektir. O zamandan beri, gitgide daha fazla insan i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilse de k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin ger\u00e7ekte ne oldu\u011funu bilmiyoruz.<br \/>\nZaman zaman, \u00f6zellikle II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra onu y\u00f6netmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Baz\u0131 y\u00f6nlerden ekonomi ve kaynaklar\u0131m\u0131z, ilk tar\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda topra\u011fa olana benzer. Toprak h\u0131zla t\u00fckenir ve mahsul yeti\u015ftiremezsiniz. Azalan getiriler elde edersiniz. Kapitalizm, nihai durumdan ziyade, b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6\u011frenme s\u00fcreci olmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. S\u0131rada ne var? Bilmiyoruz; s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. Ama her ne ise s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 gerekecek. Bu bir yalvar\u0131\u015f de\u011fil, sadece bir g\u00f6zlem.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yava\u015flama bir devlet politikas\u0131 m\u0131 olmal\u0131 ve yava\u015flamaya ge\u00e7i\u015f karar\u0131 ne zaman verilmeli?<br \/>\nEvet, baz\u0131 politika belirleyiciler bunu yapmada di\u011ferlerinden daha iyi. Aral\u0131k 2019&#8217;da varl\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en e\u015fitsiz \u00fclkeleri \u00e7o\u011funlukla a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011fc\u0131 erkekler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netiliyordu: ABD&#8217;de Donald Trump, Rusya&#8217;da Vladimir Putin, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, \u015eili&#8217;de Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Boris Johnson.<br \/>\nBununla birlikte, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak gitgide daha fazla e\u015fitli\u011fin kazan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelerde kad\u0131nlar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yordu: Finlandiya\u2019da o ay g\u00f6reve gelen yeni ba\u015fbakan, Sosyal Demokrat Parti\u2019den Sanna Marin bunun en kayda de\u011fer \u00f6rne\u011fiydi. Marin sonras\u0131nda \u00fclkeyi Li Anderson (Sol \u0130ttifak), Katri Kulmuni (Merkez Parti), Maria Ohisalo (Ye\u015filler) ve Anna-Maja Henriksson (\u0130sve\u00e7 Halk Partisi) ile koalisyon halinde y\u00f6netti. Durup bu kadar k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ne kadar \u00e7ok \u015feyin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn, b\u00f6yle bak\u0131nca insan daha iyimser oluyor. K\u0131sa zaman \u00f6ncesine kadar kad\u0131nlar\u0131n temel e\u011fitimi almas\u0131na bile izin verilmiyordu.<br \/>\nBirka\u00e7 erkek fizik\u00e7i ve matematik\u00e7i, kitapta kullan\u0131lan faz uzay diyagramlar\u0131n\u0131, yava\u015flaman\u0131n en insani y\u00f6n\u00fc olan daha az insan\u0131n do\u011fmas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in 1870\u2019lerde ilk evrensel do\u011fum hizmetinin getirilmesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce geli\u015ftirdi. Bunu, insan ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekten h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zamanda yapt\u0131lar. \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fclecek de\u011fi\u015fiklik olarak do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7en, toplumsal de\u011fi\u015fimin h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, \u201cyorumcular, toplumsal de\u011fi\u015fim h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 20. y\u00fczy\u0131lda y\u00fckseldi\u011fini s\u0131k s\u0131k g\u00f6zlemliyorlar.\u201d<br \/>\nBa\u015fka bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u015f\u00f6yle ba\u015fl\u0131yor: \u201cHayatta bir dereceye kadar kontrol ve planlamay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131ran istikrar, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fte baltalan\u0131yorsa ve bu nedenle sosyal h\u0131zlanma duygular\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yorsa, bu durumun nedenini sorgulamadan \u00f6nce do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 ve bulundu\u011fu yerde nas\u0131l ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rm.\u201d Ama h\u0131zlanm\u0131yoruz. \u201c\u00d6yle oldu\u011fumuzu hissediyorsak, bu duyguyu de\u011fi\u015ftirmenin zaman\u0131 gelmi\u015ftir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hangi alanlarda yap\u0131labilir ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ne kadar s\u00fcre sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir?<br \/>\nYava\u015flama hali haz\u0131rda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor, hatta baz\u0131 durumlarda epeydir devam ediyor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 160 y\u0131l boyunca n\u00fcfusumuz ikiye katland\u0131, tekrar ikiye katland\u0131 ve sonra neredeyse tekrar ikiye katland\u0131. Bu denli az ku\u015fak say\u0131s\u0131 boyunca insan n\u00fcfusunda b\u00f6ylesi bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rmemi\u015ftik. Bir daha da g\u00f6rmeyece\u011fiz. Bug\u00fcn n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z yava\u015fl\u0131yor.<br \/>\nCharles Darwin 1859\u2019da \u201cdo\u011fal \u015fartlarda, birbirini izleyen iki veya \u00fc\u00e7 mevsimdeki ko\u015fullar uygun oldu\u011funda, \u00e7e\u015fitli hayvanlar\u0131n \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin say\u0131s\u0131z kay\u0131tl\u0131 vaka\u201d hakk\u0131nda yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcc\u00fck fidelerden devasa fillere kadar uzanan \u00f6rnekleri kullanarak, do\u011fada nadiren g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fcstel n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n meydana geldi\u011fi durumlar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Esasen se\u00e7ebilece\u011fi en iyi \u00f6rnek, \u00fcstel art\u0131\u015f say\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6rne\u011fine rastlanmam\u0131\u015f ve d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki \u00e7o\u011falmas\u0131na yeni ba\u015flayan kendi t\u00fcr\u00fc, yani insanlar olabilirdi. 1968\u2019ten beri, Darwin bu c\u00fcmleleri yazd\u0131ktan 109 y\u0131l sonra yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k ve sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7oktan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. \u201cYapay zek\u00e2 halen olduk\u00e7a yapay ve o kadar da zeki de\u011fil. \u201c<br \/>\nYapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n bu denklemdeki rol\u00fc hakk\u0131nda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsunuz?<br \/>\nBug\u00fcn bize yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n gelece\u011fimiz oldu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor ve bilgisayarlar\u0131n yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 olmalar\u0131, yeterince iyi programlanmalar\u0131 veya kendilerini yeterince iyi programlamalar\u0131 halinde h\u0131zla bizim gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebileceklerine dair yayg\u0131n iddialar var. Bizim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, bizim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fekilde ve nihayetinde bizden daha iyi. 1970\u2019lerde \u00e7ocukken bir bilgisayar\u0131 ilk kez programlad\u0131\u011f\u0131mda bana bunun s\u00f6ylendi\u011fini \u00e7ok net hat\u0131rl\u0131yorum. O zamandan beri yapay zek\u00e2daki ilerleme h\u0131z\u0131 olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f.<br \/>\n1980\u2019lerde doktora tezimde ondan muzip\u00e7e bir deniz s\u00fcm\u00fckl\u00fcb\u00f6ce\u011fi kadar yava\u015f diye bahsetmi\u015ftim, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc o zamanlar bilgisayar kullan\u0131larak bir \u015fekilde taklit edilen tek yarat\u0131k oydu. Hen\u00fcz hi\u00e7 kimse, b\u0131rak\u0131n yapay bir insan\u0131, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir \u015fekilde hakiki bir hayvan gibi davranan evcil bir hayvan robotu bile yaratmad\u0131. 1970\u2019lerden \u00f6nceki teknolojik ilerleme oran\u0131 dikkate de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde h\u0131zl\u0131yd\u0131. Ancak daha sonraki oran \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede yava\u015f.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u201cMakine ahlaki a\u00e7\u0131dan do\u011frular\u0131 bilemez\u2019\u2019<br \/>\n\u0130nsanlar\u0131n taklit edilmesinin bu kadar zor olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrler olmam\u0131z de\u011fil. Makine olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in yapay bir zihin yaratmak \u00e7ok zor. \u00c7ok garip \u015fekillerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mutlaka iyi, h\u0131zl\u0131 veya ak\u0131ll\u0131ca yollar de\u011fil, sadece garip yollar\u2026 B\u00f6ylece bir bilgisayar plakalar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan metni, sonra da kelimeleri tan\u0131yacak \u015fekilde programlanabilir. Bilhassa Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan uzmanlar taraf\u0131ndan dikkatlice \u00e7evrilmi\u015f yeterli kaynak metin verilirse (bu nedenle Google \u00c7eviri, Avrupa dilleri i\u00e7in en iyi sonucu verir) diller aras\u0131nda \u00e7eviri yapmay\u0131 \u201cmakine \u00f6\u011frenimi\u201d yoluyla \u00f6\u011frenebilir.<br \/>\nAncak bir bilgisayar, di\u011fer insanlar\u0131n a\u00e7 kalmas\u0131na izin vermenin neden yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu veya eylemlerinin uzun vadeli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 umursamay\u0131 derinlemesine anlayacak \u015fekilde in\u015fa edilemez. Bir bilgisayar, 15 ya\u015f\u0131nda \u0130sve\u00e7li bir k\u0131z gibi iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi konusunda endi\u015felenemez. William Armstrong\u2019un Rothbury\u2019deki kilise bah\u00e7esinde bulunan mezar ta\u015f\u0131nda \u015fu kitabe yer almaktad\u0131r: \u201cBilimsel kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 ona d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda bir \u00fcn ve b\u00fcy\u00fck hay\u0131rseverli\u011fi yoksullar\u0131n minnetini kazand\u0131rd\u0131.\u201d<br \/>\nGer\u00e7ekte paras\u0131n\u0131 silah \u00fcretimi ve sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoluyla kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan hi\u00e7 s\u00f6z edilmiyor. Ve yapay zek\u00e2 bug\u00fcn, ilk icat edildi\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi, bu t\u00fcr ahlaks\u0131zl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik insani ilgiyi taklit etmekten \u00e7ok uzak. Bu sabah mutfa\u011f\u0131mdaki robot Alexa\u2019ya sordum: \u201c\u0130nsanlar\u0131n a\u00e7 kalmas\u0131 neden k\u00f6t\u00fc?\u201d \u201cHmm, onu bilmiyorum,\u201d diye cevap verdi. Google\u2019da aratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, insanlar\u0131n a\u00e7 kalmas\u0131na izin vermenin ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan mant\u0131kl\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen bir ekonomist bulabilirsiniz (ve ne yaz\u0131k ki biri muhtemelen bu hesaplamalar\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r).<br \/>\nMakine, bir \u015feyin ahlaki a\u00e7\u0131dan yanl\u0131\u015f olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sezgisel olarak bilemez. Bilmek i\u00e7in insan olman\u0131z gerekir, di\u011fer insanlara daha az insan muamelesi yapmak umursamamay\u0131 gerektirir \u2013ki baz\u0131 insanlar bunu harikulade yapabiliyor. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 bir yapay zek\u00e2 motoruna a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131p size kendi kelimelerinizi papa\u011fan gibi tekrar etmesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k almak epey zor olurdu. ChatGPT&#8217;nin size verdi\u011fi tek \u015fey, internette mevcut olan haz\u0131r cevaplar\u0131 bir araya getiren, politik olarak dengeli cevaplar\u0131n en baya\u011f\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Hayal g\u00fcc\u00fc? Hay\u0131r, buna sahip de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gelecekte neler olacak?<br \/>\nK\u00fcresel insan n\u00fcfusunun onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, ekonomik e\u015fitli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ve gezegenin art\u0131k \u0131s\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, hatta mevcut buzullar aras\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmayla birlikte so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2222&#8217;de torunlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n ne i\u00e7in endi\u015felenebilece\u011fini hayal etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131n. O y\u0131ldan \u00f6nce bir noktada, deniz seviyeleri \u015fimdikinden \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden daha istikrarl\u0131 hale gelecek.<br \/>\nG\u00fc\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli olacak ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7evreyi kirletmeyecek. Yapay zek\u00e2 fayda sa\u011flasa da h\u00e2l\u00e2 epey yapay olacak ve pek de zeki olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. Bu gelecekte hepimiz olduk\u00e7a iyi beslenece\u011fiz ama \u00e7ok az\u0131m\u0131z \u015fi\u015fman olacak. Peki o zaman ne i\u00e7in endi\u015felenece\u011fiz? Bu her ne ise, kesinlikle b\u00fcy\u00fck bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olacak. \u0130nsan olmak, hayal g\u00fcc\u00fcyle endi\u015felenmektir; daima bir \u00fctopya aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olmak, felaketten korkmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Say\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131nda duracak<br \/>\nBilinmeyen bir gelece\u011fe h\u0131zla savruldu\u011fumuz inanc\u0131 gitgide azal\u0131yor; ama ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fimizin yo\u011fun sisinden daha yeni \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yoruz ve \u015fimdi, yolculu\u011fumuz yava\u015flarken bulutlar\u0131n araland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. G\u00f6recek g\u00fczel mevsimler var ama bunlar, say\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n, icatlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ve toplam zenginli\u011fimizin katlanarak artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 verimli mevsimler de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc say\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok yak\u0131nda duracak. Son birka\u00e7 ku\u015fak, \u00f6l\u00fcmlerle soyk\u0131r\u0131mlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan t\u00fcm sava\u015flar\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ve t\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn kitlesel n\u00fckleer imhas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli planlamalar ve in\u015falar\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm insan davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n en a\u015fa\u011f\u0131l\u0131k olanlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir gidi\u015fat ve bir\u00e7ok ac\u0131 verici olay g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<br \/>\nPandeminin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri, k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta deneyimledi\u011fimiz b\u00f6yle bir olaydan sonra hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin eskisi gibi olmayaca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor. Art\u0131k pandemi bitti\u011fine g\u00f6re, sizce 2020\u2019den beri d\u00fcnya genelinde ya\u015fanan en \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler neler?<br \/>\nPandemi, bizi bekleyen yava\u015flamay\u0131 daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirdi.<br \/>\nHalen eskisi kadar u\u00e7akla seyahat etmiyoruz. Bu gezegende sadece \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z u\u00e7tu &#8211; \u00e7o\u011fu insan asla u\u00e7a\u011fa binmedi ve bu y\u0131l do\u011fan \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131 asla u\u00e7amayacak. D\u00fcnyadaki \u00e7o\u011fu \u00e7ocuk hi\u00e7 u\u00e7a\u011fa binmedi ve binmeyecek. Ancak pandemi, u\u00e7u\u015fta yava\u015flaman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu \u2013 bu yava\u015flama halen y\u00fckseliyor, ancak 2018 ve 2019&#8217;daki kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fil. Pandemi, bizi bekleyen yava\u015flamay\u0131 daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirdi ve bu m\u00fcte\u015fekkir olunacak bir \u015fey.<br \/>\nAlternatif -s\u00fcrekli artan toplam insan n\u00fcfusu, ekonomik olarak her zamankinden daha fazla b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f toplumlar, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na her zamankinden daha fazla t\u00fcketim- bir felaket olabilirdi. Hem n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hem de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmadan, kapitalizm -sonunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnemeyece\u011fimiz kadar al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ekonomik sistem- ba\u015fka bir \u015feye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<br \/>\n\u00c7ok daha istikrarl\u0131 ve mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u015feye. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n o gelecek d\u00fcnyada daha mutlu olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek imk\u00e2ns\u0131z. Daha fazla m\u00fclk edinerek ve daha egzotik deneyimler ya\u015fayarak mutlulu\u011fu bulamayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle daha s\u0131k y\u00fcz y\u00fcze gelebilirler. Bilemeyece\u011fimiz \u00e7ok \u015fey var. Ancak en az\u0131ndan yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00fczerimizde oldu\u011funu ve art\u0131k pek \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 alanda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini kabul etmeliyiz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Daha az yikim daha az yoksulluk<br \/>\nArt\u0131k daha az ke\u015fif, daha az yeni gizem ve daha az \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck adam\u201d ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fumuzu kabul etmemiz biraz zaman alabilir. Ama bu yutulmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor bir lokma m\u0131? Hem daha az despotluk, daha az y\u0131k\u0131m ve daha az yoksulluk g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131l iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck h\u0131zlanman\u0131n zirvesinde aptalca \u00f6vd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u201cyarat\u0131c\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m\u201da bir daha asla k\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00f6r\u00fcne inanmayaca\u011f\u0131z mesela.<br \/>\nFirmalar batt\u0131k\u00e7a her \u015feyin daha iyiye gitti\u011fine dair tuhaf bir fikirdi bu \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sadece batmay\u0131 hak eden firmalar iflas etti. Bu nihilist retorik, \u015firket evriminin tuhaf (ama o zamanlar pop\u00fcler olan) en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcn\u00fcn hayatta kalmas\u0131 teorisine g\u00f6re mant\u0131kl\u0131yd\u0131. Pandemi olsa olsa yava\u015flama h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. En temel d\u00fczeyde, hem pandemi s\u0131ras\u0131ndan hem de sonras\u0131nda tahmin edilenden daha az bebek do\u011fdu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>For a PDF of this article and where it was originally published on-line click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/?page_id=9721\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_9722\" style=\"width: 464px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9722\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9722\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/wp-content\/files\/Picture1-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"454\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/wp-content\/files\/Picture1-10.png 454w, https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/wp-content\/files\/Picture1-10-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 454px) 100vw, 454px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-9722\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The cover of &#8220;Slowdown&#8221;, Turkish Edition<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Danny Dorling discusses the end of the age of speed in his book Slowdown.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9726"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9726\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9727,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9726\/revisions\/9727"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}