{"id":7327,"date":"2019-07-08T09:27:05","date_gmt":"2019-07-08T09:27:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/?p=7327"},"modified":"2022-08-19T12:21:54","modified_gmt":"2022-08-19T12:21:54","slug":"health-inequalities-in-trumps-america-and-brexit-britain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dannydorling.org\/?p=7327","title":{"rendered":"Health Inequalities in Trump’s America and Brexit Britain"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why do people vote for politicians and rhetoric which actually puts their own lives at risk and what can be done about it? On 25 June 2019 Jonathan Metzl and Danny Dorling were asked to consider how politics in the US and UK is failing the people who most need help. They both spoke at a public meeting in the town hall of the city of Durham. The meeting was chaired and introduced by Dr Angela Woods of the Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing<\/a>, University of Durham. An audio recording is below.<\/p>\n

Life expectancy in the USA fell from its 2014 peak of 81.47 years for women in 2014, to 81.35 years in 2015; US data for 2016 onwards has yet to be released. In 2014 women in the USA lived, on average, for 20 fewer months each than women in the UK. Men in the USA saw their life expectancy peak at 76.66 years in 2014, falling to 76.50 years in 2015; or to 33 fewer months of life to enjoy, each man that year. This was despite life expectancy also falling in the UK.<\/p>\n

The UK does much better than the USA. Life Expectancy in the UK fell occasionally before 2014 and has been falling steadily since 2014. In 2014 women in the UK lived for 82.99 years, that fell to 82.72 in 2015 and was 82.84 in 2016 – still two months below its 2014 peak. For men UK life expectancy peaked at 79.25 years in 2014, falling to 79.04 in 2015 and was 79.18 in 2016 – still one month below the 2014 peak. The mortality figures for the UK since 2016 have shown rising overall mortality rates <\/a>from each mid-year to mid-year since 2016. The two graphs below are taken from the full international comparison made most recently by ONS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"

ONS estimates of male life expectancy trends in 20 affluent countries, 2000 to 2016<\/p><\/div>\n

\"\"

ONS estimates of female life expectancy trends in 20 affluent countries, 2000 to 2016<\/p><\/div>\n

The source for these graphs and the ONS data behind them can be found here<\/a>. ONS base their estimates on the Human Mortality database<\/a>, the best international source of comparative data on life expectancy. Note how every other line for every other country in the comparison is either already above the UK and USA or is rising rapidly towards soon overtaking these two unusual states.<\/p>\n

The data released by ONS<\/a>, and used by them to make the two charts shown above, can also be used to look at changes in life expectancy over time. The two tables below do this for all those countries for which data up until 2016 is included. It is clear that for both men and women the UK has the worse recent record of all ten countries ONS has compared up until 2016. The two tables below sort these ten countries countries from that experiencing the largest fall (the UK in both the cases of women and men) to largest rise of the most recent change (Japan and Norway respectively):<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Change in life expectancy in year between pairs of years from 2008 until 2016 (women)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

“08-10”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“09-11”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“10-12”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“11-13”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“12-14”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“13-15”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u201d14-16″<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.66<\/td>\n0.52<\/td>\n0.33<\/td>\n0.05<\/td>\n0.32<\/td>\n\n

-0.05<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.15<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

  UK<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.35<\/td>\n0.34<\/td>\n0.07<\/td>\n0.05<\/td>\n0.51<\/td>\n0.31<\/td>\n0.04<\/td>\n  Sweden<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.19<\/td>\n0.39<\/td>\n0.26<\/td>\n0.16<\/td>\n0.69<\/td>\n0.54<\/td>\n0.07<\/td>\n  Norway<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.20<\/td>\n0.30<\/td>\n0.10<\/td>\n0.10<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n0.10<\/td>\n0.10<\/td>\n  Switzerland<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.70<\/td>\n0.48<\/td>\n0.08<\/td>\n0.41<\/td>\n0.54<\/td>\n\n

-0.13<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

0.19<\/td>\n  Spain<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.18<\/td>\n0.58<\/td>\n0.16<\/td>\n0.13<\/td>\n0.45<\/td>\n0.03<\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n  Austria<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.63<\/td>\n0.85<\/td>\n0.39<\/td>\n0.24<\/td>\n0.63<\/td>\n0.43<\/td>\n0.33<\/td>\n  Poland<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.51<\/td>\n0.26<\/td>\n0.13<\/td>\n0.40<\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n\n

-0.13<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

0.35<\/td>\n  Australia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.47<\/td>\n0.61<\/td>\n0.28<\/td>\n0.39<\/td>\n0.81<\/td>\n0.31<\/td>\n0.36<\/td>\n  Czech Republic<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.29<\/td>\n\n

-0.47<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

0.13<\/td>\n0.70<\/td>\n0.40<\/td>\n0.42<\/td>\n0.37<\/td>\n  Japan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note that an earthquake off the  coast of T\u014dhoku of magnitude 9.0 occurred on Friday 11 March 2011. On  Thursday 7 May 2015 a new government was elected in the UK.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

Change in life expectancy in year between pairs of years from 2008 until 2016 (men)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

“08-10”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“09-11”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“10-12”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“11-13”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“12-14”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“13-15”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

\n

“14-16”<\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.81<\/td>\n0.75<\/td>\n0.60<\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n0.29<\/td>\n0.04<\/td>\n\n

-0.07<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

  UK<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.67<\/td>\n0.48<\/td>\n0.48<\/td>\n0.58<\/td>\n0.30<\/td>\n\n

-0.04<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

0.18<\/td>\n  Australia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.82<\/td>\n0.68<\/td>\n0.32<\/td>\n0.64<\/td>\n0.75<\/td>\n\n

-0.02<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

0.19<\/td>\n  Spain<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.84<\/td>\n0.91<\/td>\n0.61<\/td>\n0.62<\/td>\n1.04<\/td>\n0.52<\/td>\n0.19<\/td>\n  Poland<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.43<\/td>\n0.46<\/td>\n0.35<\/td>\n0.30<\/td>\n0.49<\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n  Sweden<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.07<\/td>\n0.69<\/td>\n0.60<\/td>\n0.38<\/td>\n0.66<\/td>\n0.17<\/td>\n0.23<\/td>\n  Austria<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.41<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n0.63<\/td>\n0.53<\/td>\n0.78<\/td>\n0.60<\/td>\n0.43<\/td>\n  Czech Republic<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.30<\/td>\n\n

-0.10<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n

0.41<\/td>\n0.77<\/td>\n0.55<\/td>\n0.56<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n  Japan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.50<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n0.30<\/td>\n0.20<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n0.20<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n  Switzerland<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.53<\/td>\n0.40<\/td>\n0.57<\/td>\n0.65<\/td>\n0.61<\/td>\n0.71<\/td>\n0.58<\/td>\n  Norway<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note that an earthquake off the coast of T\u014dhoku of magnitude 9.0 occurred on Friday 11 March 2011.On  Thursday 7 May 2015 a new government was elected in the UK.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even small changes in lie expectancy between years, let alone pairs of years are almost also significant changes other than for the smallest of pacific islands with very low total populations. To quote from those who know<\/a>: “Life expectancy statistics are almost never presented as interval estimates (i.e., with confidence bounds). For national-level populations, life expectancy is very sharply estimated. Except for the smallest countries, population size and deaths are large enough that the confidence intervals are so narrow as to be unhelpful, and are therefore omitted.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

ON June 1st 2019 the Guardian newspaper reported<\/a>, quoting IPPR research, that “More than 130,000 deaths in the UK since 2012 could have been prevented if improvements in public health policy had not stalled as a direct result of austerity cuts, according to a hard-hitting analysis to be published this week.<\/em>” Prevented, of course, means, delayed and people could have lived a little longer. Had they each just lived a few months longer life expectancy in the UK would not now be falling.<\/p>\n

Earlier Lu Hiam and Martin McKee, writing in the BMJ<\/a>, had explained that more recent data than that released by the ONS to date had revealed that “Life expectancy in the UK has fallen, again. The trend that started in 2010-2011 has worsened. The total fall in life expectancy compared to 2015 projections is 13 months for men and 14 months for women.<\/em>”<\/p>\n

Infant mortality has also been rising steadily now in the UK<\/a> and has stopped falling in the USA<\/a> for for some time now. Thankfully this is not the reason why the life expectancy figures are falling in both countries but infant mortality rates, although now continuously rising in the UK, are still historically low.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/h2>\n

Health Inequalities in Trump’s America and Brexit Britain<\/strong><\/h2>\n

25th June 2019, 17:30 to 19:00, Town Hall, Durham, Jonathan Metzl & Danny Dorling<\/strong><\/p>\n

Why do people vote for politicians and rhetoric which actually puts their own lives at risk and what can be done about it? Join Jonathan Metzl and Danny Dorling to consider how politics in the US and UK is failing the people who most need help.<\/p>\n